Monday, October 14, 2013

Linux Kernel Roadmap for Ubuntu LTS

Since we are mostly a Ubuntu Shop we are somewhat interested which Kernel will be in the next version 14.04 LTS. Since there is no official road map we have to do a little crystal balling. Let's see how long each release actually takes in the 3.x series. Taking the release dates from Wikipedia we see an average on 67 days in the last 2 years:

Version      Release Date           Days
3.0    7/22/2011    64
3.1   10/24/2011    94
3.2    1/05/2012    73
3.3    3/19/2012    74
3.4    5/21/2012    63
3.5    7/12/2012    52
3.6   10/01/2012    81
3.7   12/11/2012    71
3.8    2/19/2013    70
3.9    4/29/2013    69
3.10   6/30/2013    62
3.11   9/02/2013    64

and assuming that Linus will turn into a robot and releases every 67 days the future may look like this:

3.12   11/8/2013    67
3.13   1/14/2014    67
3.14   3/22/2014    67
3.15   5/28/2014    67
3.16    8/3/2014    67
3.17   10/9/2014    67
3.18   2/15/2014    67
3.19   2/20/2015    67
3.20   4/28/2015    67
3.21    7/4/2015    67
3.22    9/9/2015    67
3.23  11/15/2015    67
3.24   1/21/2016    67
3.25   3/28/2016    67

For Ubuntu 14.04 this means that the Kernel will either be 3.13 or 3.14, the former is perhaps more likely.